Economic Confidence Model
Analyzing Shifts in Global Capital Flows and Economic Confidence
The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) tracks global capital flows and concentration over time for a macro, cyclical view of the shifts in investment confidence.
When confidence is strong, capital concentrates in the PUBLIC (government) or PRIVATE sector of a given region. When confidence wanes, capital can shift between sectors and/or geographic regions.
Variables such as politics, real estate, GDP and trade impact confidence, and at its peak can lead to overvaluation and an over-concentration of capital, which can lead to a bubble and financial panic or similar economic event (relative to the time and circumstances).
Similarly, when the majority loses confidence in the public or private sector and/or region, this may also lead to shifts in capital and related economic events.
The ECM is comprised of varying cyclical waves (each with a different duration of time). The longer the wave, the greater the potential magnitude of a shift in confidence as the wave ends (an ECM date).
It's important to understand that the Economic Confidence Model does not track or forecast individual financial markets or instruments.
It can however be a reference point while you conduct research. For example, if the Global Market Watch and the Timing Arrays are showing activity that seems to line up with an upcoming ECM date, this could be worthy of further research.
Therefore, the Socrates Platform includes ECM dates for reference so users can research them in combination with other data.