Proprietary Models

Economic Confidence Model (ECM)

Analyzing Shifts in Global Capital Flows & Economic Confidence

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) tracks global capital flows and concentration over time for a macro, cyclical view of the shifts in investment confidence.

When confidence is strong, capital concentrates in the PUBLIC (government) or PRIVATE sector of a given region. When confidence wanes, capital can shift between sectors and/or geographic regions.

Variables such as politics, real estate, GDP and trade impact confidence, and at its peak can lead to overvaluation and an over-concentration of capital, which can lead to a bubble and financial panic or similar economic event (relative to the time and circumstances).

Similarly, when the majority loses confidence in the public or private sector and/or region, this may also lead to shifts in capital and related economic events.


The ECM is comprised of varying cyclical waves (each with a different duration of time). The longer the wave, the greater the potential magnitude of a shift in confidence as the wave ends (an ECM date).

It's important to understand that the Economic Confidence Model does not track or forecast individual financial markets or instruments.
It can however be a reference point while you conduct research.

If the Global Market Watch and the Timing Arrays are showing activity that seems to line up with an upcoming ECM date, further research can be done, we include ECM dates for reference so users can research them in combination with other data.

Understanding the Economic Confidence Model

The economic Confidence Model, or ECM, presents a macroscopic perspective on economic confidence. It focuses on tracking global capital flows and their concentration over time, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the shifts in investment confidence. Unlike predictions about specific financial markets, the ECM seeks to illuminate broader trends, offering a panoramic view of changing economic dynamics.
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Variables that Shape Confidence

Many variables shape economic confidence, factors such as political stability, real estate performance, GDP growth, and trade activity influence the ebbs and flows of confidence. These elements collectively determine the trajectory of economic sentiment.

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Cyclical Waves and Shifting Confidence

The ECM is composed of various cyclical waves, each with a distinct duration. The length of these waves plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude of confidence shifts as the cycle culminates in an ECM date. Longer waves often depict more substantial shifts.

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The Connection to Economic Events

The Economic Confidence Model offers a vantage point from which to observe confidence and capital. Its emphasis on tracking macro trends rather than individual markets makes it a potent tool for understanding the cyclical nature of economic sentiment. By recognizing the forces that shape confidence and capital movement, you can make more informed decisions in an ever-changing economic landscape.

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