Economic Confidence Model (ECM)

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a proprietary macro-economic computer model observing global capital flows and concentration and the alignment of the cyclical movement in confidence.

Capital tends to first concentrate into a single nation or region (each having their own cycles and variables such as politics, real estate and GDP sensitivities – such as a reliance on agriculture for its economy, which is then impacted by weather, and so on). Capital will then shift into a sector or asset class in that region.

When the majority feels confident and invests in one sector or nation, it eventually leads to overvaluation and an over-concentration of capital – which may lead to a bubble, which may then lead to some form of financial panic or economic event (relative to the time and circumstances). The pendulum swings.

Similarly, when the majority loses confidence in government or private sector, this may also lead to shifts in capital and relative economic events. This has been observed over the course of history.

The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of a possible shift in confidence. The target dates in the ECM are also referred to as ECM turning points. The ECM does not focus on any specific Covered Market, but if the Global Market Watch and the Arrays are showing patterns and cycles lining up with an upcoming macro ECM target date, this could be a turning point has a stronger likelihood to come to fruition.

Please keep in mind though, the Economic Confidence Model is a long-term, macro view of shifts in global capital concentration and confidence – it does not track or forecast individual markets or financial instruments.